Disruption

McKinsey partners and industry experts discuss the future expansion of parcel delivery using drone technology.

Re-allocating space on streets to accommodate new uses – particularly for walking, biking, and being – is not new. COVID-era needs have accelerated the process that many communities use to make such street transitions, however. Many communities quickly understood that the street is actually a public place and a public good that serves broader public needs more urgent than the free flow or the storage of private vehicles. This book captures some of these quick changes to city streets in response to societal needs during COVID, with two open questions: 1) what changes will endure post-COVID?; and 2) will communities be more open to street reconfigurations, including quick and inexpensive trials, going forward?

Using experience from working on the Knight AV Initiative, Urbanism Next created this white paper to provide a foundation for public sector agencies to approach autonomous vehicle deployment and policy with a focus on equity. This report outlines ways that public agencies can identify community needs and shape deployment to ensure that AVs will be accessible for all. 

Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) will impose challenges on cities that are currently difficult to fully envision yet critical to begin addressing. This research makes an incremental step toward quantifying the impacts that AVs by examining current associations between transportation network company (TNC) trips — often viewed as a harbinger of AVs — and parking revenue in Seattle. Using Uber and Lyft trip data combined with parking revenue and built environment data, this research models projected parking revenue in Seattle. Results demonstrate that total revenue generated in each census tract will continue to increase at current rates of TNC trip-making; parking revenue will, however, start to decline if or when trips levels are about 4.7 times higher than the average 2016 level. The results also indicate that per-space parking revenue is likely to increase by about 2.2 percent for each 1,000 additional TNC trips taken if no policy changes are taken. The effects on revenue will vary quite widely by neighborhood, suggesting that a one-size-fits-all policy may not be the best path forward for cities. Instead, flexible and adaptable policies that can more quickly respond (or better yet, be proactive) to changing AV demand will be better suited at managing the changes that will affect parking revenue.

COVID Mobility Works is an independent platform dedicated to collecting, synthesizing and sharing mobility initiatives that are keeping the world moving during the COVID-19 pandemic. The goal of this platform is to help policymakers, innovators, researchers and advocates rise to the challenge of creating more resilient, inclusive, and sustainable transportation systems for all.

This paper seeks to understand the potential causes of a decline in transit ridership by examining data from seven major U.S. cities – Boston, New York City, Washington D.C., Chicago, Denver, San Francisco and Los Angles.

This report examines the issues that will arise due to the arrival of more automated and fully autonomous and studies how authorities might best respond to these issues. It discusses regulatory considerations and policy choices as well as key challenges that may arise.

Although online shopping has created hundreds of thousands of new jobs, there has not been enough to make up for the amount of traditional retail jobs lost.

Large San Diego parking company Ace Parking has reported lower parking rates due to the increasing popularity of Uber and Lyft.

Uber was banned from London in 2019 due to concerns about customer safety after it was discovered that the Uber app let drivers fake their identity in thousands of rides. Pressure to create more safety regulations for ride-hailing companies makes them more vulnerable to increased costs. As these companies regularly operate at a loss, new regulations could put them at higher risk for financial trouble. Regulators have been unapologetic, saying they must prioritize public safety.

Following Uber and Lyft leaving Austin, Texas, drivers and riders have taken to alternative methods to create ride-hailing services. Extents of this effort range from Facebook groups to a newly developed app, Arcade City. As of 2016, Arcade City was not registered with the city, and it lets drivers and riders determine their own level of comfortability with riding conditions.

Automation of personal and transit vehicles will change the vehicles themselves, but also the right-of-way that governs their use. These changes bring an opportunity to improve transit systems. High capacity transit must become a more attractive mode of transit in order to remain competitive with personal and shared vehicles.

The growth of e-commerce in the past led to a decrease in brick-and-mortar retail presence, but it appears as if the tides are changing in favor of re-investing in the physical retail market. The line between online and physical commerce is beginning to blur, and companies such as Amazon aim to combine their strategies to expand in both markets.

Self-driving cars will be first available to robotaxi-fleet operators, not private owners. This availability restriction comes from the expensive nature of LIDAR sensors that make the sensors themselves more expensive than the rest of the vehicle. The safety and reliability of automated vehicles also impacts their ability to be privately owned, at least at first. Safe and reliable vehicle operation is easier to achieve when the vehicles operate within a geographic range that has been mapped in detail, meaning automated vehicles will mainly operate in city centers in their early stages of adoption. These considerations driving automated vehicles toward fleet ownership will have impacts on many areas of the automotive industry.

Autonomous vehicles are on their way to becoming the next leap in technological advancement. Sensor technology, computing capacity, and artificial intelligence are some of the main technologies that need major development to make autonomous vehicles feasible to adopt on a large scale.

The impacts of e-commerce and changing consumer behaviors have caused brick and mortar retailers to shift their business models and reduce store square footage.

The Teamsters labor union wrote UPS an 83 page document outlining demands to ban UPS from using drones or driverless vehicles. UPS must balance these demands with growing competition for the package delivery industry and the flexibility it requires to remain competitive.

Credit Suisse predicts that as many as 25% of U.S. malls will close by 2022 due to the rise of e-commerce, discount chains, retail bankruptcies and store closings.

This article provides a complete list of all stores planning to close in 2019.

Ride-hailing services like Uber and Lyft are changing how travelers get to the airport. This trend is negatively affecting airports, which depend on parking, rental car, and taxi fees as a primary source of revenue.

This is a fact sheet suitable for use as a printed handout on Urbanism Next's topline research findings regarding TNCs.

This is an exercise that deconstructs an urban and a suburban streetscape using the Restreet.com participatory design tool. Restreet was created by William Riggs, Mike Boswell and Ryder Ross in 2016 as a code fork from the Code for America project Streetmix. The idea was to democratize the way we plan streets and synthesize that data for policy and decision-making. The streets depicted show right-of-way needs eroding due to the prevalence of autonomous vehicles creating efficiency or the policy decision to do so in advance of their adoption. The final two slides show the submissions from the over 6,000 users since September and the related summary statistics. All suggest that policy that supports traffic calming and lane reductions to support multimodal transportation might be appropriate in the immediate future.

The American retail sector is undergoing a long-term structural shift away from small “mom-and-pop” stores and toward national chains. Retail establishments have gotten larger and more concentrated; the mass-market merchandisers of the later twentieth century continued a trend toward consolidation of the retail sector into national chains operating large stores that started before their widespread emergence. In the late twentieth century, Wal-Mart emerged as the world’s most important (and controversial) retailer. The evidence on Wal-Mart’s effects on retail employment suggests either mild positive or mild negative effects, but Wal-Mart’s effect on prices suggests increases in real income.

This article describes the changing driving landscape in New York City. The city is making efforts to return the streets to the people and also optimize public transportation options. The pushback is steep again the community where the traffic is being pushed as well as with the business owners.

"To gauge the opinions of everyday Americans on this complex and far-reaching topic, the survey presented respondents with four different scenarios relating to automation technologies. Collectively, these scenarios speak to many of the hopes and concerns embedded in the broader debate over automation and its impact on society. The scenarios included: the development of autonomous vehicles that can operate without the aid of a human driver; a future in which robots and computers can perform many of the jobs currently done by human workers; the possibility of fully autonomous robot caregivers for older adults; and the possibility that a computer program could evaluate and select job candidates with no human involvement."

Automated vehicle (AV) policy development and assessment is a difficult and complicated process. Today’s road and vehicle policies are the product of a hundred years of lessons learned. They generally address five areas: safety, efficiency, mobility, convenience, and impact on the environment. Now the prospect-turned-reality of automated vehicles entering public roadways has opened up a number of new policy-related questions. Is it enough to simply modify current road and vehicle policies or will new policies need to be developed addressing much broader aspects of the transportation system? How can these policies be developed to accommodate technologies that either do not yet exist or are only now being tested on the road in constrained environments? Perhaps most importantly, how can policy influence technological design to safely operate with other road users and can we look ahead to have a better view of potential unintended consequences?

In the first year since Amazon bought Whole Foods, two large grocers are already beginning to suffer and make drastic cuts.

This article explores the rate of retail store closures, its effects on employment, and the role of economy market forces on the changes.

The survey results described here provide a new window into ride-hailing utilization in the Boston Region. Our findings confirm many widespread assumptions about ride-hailing, but also provide new insights into previously unexplored and unmeasured topics. Ride-hailing is used by a wide variety of Metro Boston residents, and riders are relatively representative of the region in terms of race and income.

This white paper will discuss the non-technological trends logistics managers much know and then will hone in on the technologies that will impact the logistics in 2018.

This report examines the impact of TNC growth on traffic conditions in the Manhattan Central Business District (CBD), defined as 60 Street to the Battery, river to river. Using newly available data on TNC trips, the report presents a more detailed analysis of CBD traffic conditions than has been possible previously, isolating the impact of TNC growth in the Manhattan CBD during the most congested part of the day -- weekdays between 8 a.m. and 7 p.m.

This report presents findings from a detailed analysis of the growth of app-based ride services in New York City, their impacts on traffic, travel patterns and vehicle mileage since 2013, and implications for policy makers. The analysis utilizes trip and mileage data that are uniquely available in New York City, providing a detailed and comprehensive look at the expansion of app-based ride services and their impact on critical City goals for mobility, economic growth and environmental sustainability.

A synopsis of how Walmart plans to increase services and capacity in order to continue to compete with Amazon.

SAFE believes that AV-related labor displacement concerns—many of which have been expressed sensationally—must be addressed seriously rather than merely dismissed out of hand or repeated without verification. In response to these concerns, SAFE commissioned a panel of highly regarded transportation and labor economists to conduct a fact-based and rigorous assessment of the economic costs and benefits of AVs, including labor impacts.

Experts predict Amazon will use the Whole Foods stores, in part, as hubs for grocery pick-up and delivery, helping Amazon resolve the “last mile” dilemma." Overall, it should create opportunity in real estate but take more strategy.

The future of department stores in suburban malls is grim, this article explains the rising trends and what is causing the push.

This article explains to us the reasons Amazon bought Whole Foods - working to create a rather seamless day-to-day operation for its customer base.

This article discuss the changing consumer behaviors and the some e-commerce business' support for retails can help brick-and-mortar retail grow.

This article provides 12 rules on how to prepare the change that AVs bring to the city, include data, street design, transit, traffic management, suburban development, etc.

The expansion of delivery services is expanding each day with the use of new technology. In this article, we see how a new app can give delivery drivers access to your trunk to leave packages, an option that is created to eliminate the need to leave packages on your doorstep if security concerns you.

Target acquires delivery service Shipt for $550 million, this article explains how its going and how they match up to other delivery options.

In an effort to keep up with competitor Amazon, Walmart partners with delivery company Postmastes to offer same-day grocery delivery to more US households.

Retail in the U.S. is going through some hardships. There is too much and the shopping trip is the same each time you go. Millennial's are putting retail into a head spin wanting more, quicker and for better prices with less hassle. For these retailer sot keep up with the wants and needs of it's customer base, they're going to have to make some changes.

The full story of autonomous vehicles is yet to be written. We created four scenario planning stories that explain how cities could shape the driverless future: tap taxi to tackle isolation, weaving a microtransit mesh, a human touch on robot delivery, reprogramming bus, bikes and barriers.

In this study, we present exploratory evidence of how “ridesourcing” services (app-based, on-demand ride services like Uber and Lyft) are used in San Francisco. We explore who uses ridesourcing and for what reasons, how the ridesourcing market compares to that of traditional taxis, and how ridesourcing impacts the use of public transit and overall vehicle travel. In spring 2014, 380 completed intercept surveys were collected from three ridesourcing “hot spots” in San Francisco. We compare survey results with matched-pair taxi trip data and results of a previous taxi user survey. We also compare travel times for ridesourcing and taxis with those for public transit.

"This report consists of nine chapters. Chapter 2 describes the effects of technology on transportation in general, the innovative services relevant to this report, what is known about the use of these services, and their potential impacts. Chapter 3 explains the existing regulatory structure of the taxi, sedan, and limousine industries and the challenges to that existing structure presented by the rise of TNCs. Chapter 4 presents an economic framework for address- ing those challenges. Chapters 5 through 8 then review specific issues facing shared mobility services: Chapter 5 examines labor and employment issues; Chapter 6 addresses personal security for drivers and passengers and safety for the public; Chapter 7 reviews insurance issues; and Chapter 8 looks at issues of access and equity. Chapter 9 presents the overall conclusions resulting from this study and the committee’s recommendations for policy makers and regulators who must consider whether and how to regulate these new services to serve public policy goals, and outlines research needs."

This Strategic Plan is designed to help the East-West Gateway Council of Governments (EWG) to better position itself to prepare for emerging transportation technologies in its planning and investment decision making processes.

Through a review of long-range transportation plans and interviews with planners, this article examines how large metropolitan planning organizations are preparing for autonomous vehicles. In just a few years, the prospect of commercially available self-driving cars and trucks has gone from a futurist fantasy to a likely near-term reality. However, uncertainties about the new technology and its relationship to daily investment decisions have kept mention of self-driving cars out of nearly all long-range transportation plans.

This article discusses the changes that will be necessary once AVs hit our streets. The changes in insurance policies, jobs, land use, etc. will change our societal norms.

The questionable acquisition of Jet.com by Walmart last year has seemed to pay off, this article explains the purchase and their success since.

Amazon agreed to buy the upscale grocery chain Whole Foods for $13.4 billion, in a deal that will instantly transform the company that pioneered online shopping into a merchant with physical outposts in hundreds of neighborhoods across the country.

The presentation includes the macro trend of e-commerce, investment overview, emerging trends in e-commerce, and the future predictive.

This study advances the national conversation about how to cope with the effect of AVs on workers in three ways: by setting forth a framework for discussion, presenting quantitative simulations and qualitative scenarios to help assess key impacts, and providing policy recommendations for mitigating negative impacts while also setting an agenda for research on policy.

Meal-delivery companies are the ultimate symbol of the most powerful force in business today: convenience maximalism. But it comes with ethical, ecological, and economic costs.

Most of today’s retailers and their supply chain advisors understand the shift in retail sales to the online channel but, for many years, the inclusion of gasoline, groceries, and automobile sales in U.S. retail sales numbers masked the true extent of eCommerce penetration. This is a blog summary of a longer report.

Nordstrom has officially opened its first store without inventory, testing a new format for the department store chain called Nordstrom Local.

A new report confirms what local officials in Oklahoma have been saying for some time: Internet retail sales are eating away at sales tax revenues.

"As e-commerce grows as a percentage of total retail sales, consumers are choosing delivery options with shorter delivery cycles. Not only does this mean that Amazon Prime customers (65 million subscribers in September 2016) can choose Prime Now two-hour deliveries for some high-volume items, it means other retailers are offering same-day deliveries, as are some package delivery companies (United Parcel Service [UPS], Federal Express [FedEx], and United States Postal Service [USPS]) in certain cities. This report reviews how express delivery services now operate, how they are regulated, and how they may affect the state’s transportation system."

This article discusses about the cost of AV per mile compared to SOVs and looks into AV peak demand and surge pricing.

There's a good reason Walmart, Kroger, and other supermarket chains are rapidly building out their online grocery options: Amazon.com is running away with the category, and as more grocery shopping moves online, it may develop an impenetrable lead over the competition.

JD.com is an example of what companies may look like in the future of automation. This article talks about how their company, shipping 200,000 orders a day, operates in this new age.

This article lays out the share of the market Amazon versus its competitors hold and the impacts its growth is having.

A year ago, electric rental scooters were hailed as the next big thing in transportation. But their troubles in San Diego show how the services have now hit growing pains.

With its 1950s aesthetic intact, Knightley’s Garage is more than a kitschy throwback to the past. Wichita’s repurposed parking facility may actually be an indication of things to come. As personal auto ownership declines in urban downtowns, car-related urban infrastructure is increasingly underused. Some garages, like Knightley’s, are ripe for adaptive reuse. Others are being constructed from scratch in ways that will allow them to be repurposed down the road.

Carmaking giants and ride-sharing upstarts racing to put autonomous vehicles on the road are dead set on replacing drivers, and that includes truckers. Trucks without human hands at the wheel could be on American roads within a decade, say analysts and industry executives. At risk is one of the most common jobs in many states, and one of the last remaining careers that offer middle-class pay to those without a college degree.

Driverless vehicles will likely have a huge impact on our future; however, it is the government’s actions (now and in the future) that will determine how they are integrated into society and if the impacts are largely positive or negative. The intent of this guide is to outline the role of government in the integration of driverless vehicles in society and present the information that local and regional governments need to inform planning and decision-making – now and in the future.

"This paper presents findings from a comprehensive travel and residential survey deployed in seven major U.S. cities, in two phases from 2014 to 2016, with a targeted, representative sample of their urban and suburban populations. The purpose of this report is to provide early insight on the adoption of, use, and travel behavior impacts of ride-hailing. The report is structured around three primary topics, key findings of which are highlighted below."

The purpose of this White Paper is to help cities prepare in advance for autonomous technology by passing formal resolutions and setting in motion Smart Mobility Plans. The document covers: Terminology, Benefits and risks associated with autonomous technology, Common autonomous vehicle deployment phases, How changing transportation technology affects governance, Approaches for harnessing benefits while limiting risks, Examples, Developing resolutions – local context, Conclusion and sample resolution language. The sample language and bullet points can also be used for presentations, policy papers, Comprehensive or Transportation Plan updates and memos. Much of the information is also helpful when drafting policy on other types of technology, including ridehailing/sharing services and smart city technology (e.g., Internet of Things (IoT) and sensors).

"The aim of this paper is to show how TNCs could replace public transportation in the United States if subsidized at the same level of transit agencies."

Food delivery apps are reshaping the restaurant industry—and how we eat—by inspiring digital-only establishments that don’t need a dining room or waiters.

The author introduces a philosophy called the "precautionary principle" as a way to take a more cautionary measure before new technologies or policies are introduced. He uses scooters and ridesharing as an example of how cities should delay their arrival until the logistics are worked out.

Like most other industries, transportation and logistics (T&L) is currently confronting immense change; and like all change, this brings both risk and opportunity. New technology, new market entrants, new customer expectations, and new business models. In this paper we discuss four key areas of disruption logistics companies need to focus on now, and explore some possible futures of the industry.

Using data from the 2010 to 2014 merged American Community Survey released by the U.S. Census Bureau, this paper estimates the labor market impact of jobs likely to be lost with a rapid transition to autonomous vehicles. The report finds that certain population groups and areas of the country would be disproportionately affected. Finally, we call for policymakers to take immediate steps to offset the potential for harmful labor disruptions.

A first-of-its-kind law will give New York City data on small businesses fleeing the city as retail rents skyrocket. But skeptics fear that won’t be enough.

As e-commerce sales march ahead of in-store sales, the major issue discussed at the Retail Industry Leaders Association’s (RILA) Retail Supply Chain Conference: Logistics 2013 was best practices for developing and executing an omni-channel distribution strategy. And real estate—particularly distribution centers (DCs)—is a significant part of the process. This article reviews the main questions asked during the conference.

"This report explores autonomous vehicle benefits and costs, and implications for various planning issues. It investigates how quickly self driving vehicles are likely to be developed and deployed based on experience with previous vehicle technologies, their benefits and costs, and how they are likely to affect travel demands and planning decisions such as optimal road, parking and public transit supply."

The sharing economy and on-demand services are weaving their way into the lives of (some) Americans, raising difficult issues around jobs, regulation and the potential emergence of a new digital divide. This report offers a detailed examination of three different services that exemplify the shared, collaborative and on-demand economy: ride-hailing apps, home-sharing platforms and crowdfunding services.

A very brief introduction to the impacts that may come with autonomous cars in the future.

Occasionally, change occurs so rapidly it seems the world is spinning faster than ever. Technology changes occurring in roadways and bridges today are amazing, to say the least. Motorists will soon experience roadway technology never imagined in the past. The transportation sector is definitely a change leader in the U.S.

Low wages, lack of career paths and an overwhelming belief among the working public that fast-food jobs should only ever be temporary all contribute to the worsening turnover issues faced by quick-service restaurants. Automation is being explored as an answer.

E‐commerce has become an integral part of Americans’ lives and while it offers many benefits, it also represents forgone sales tax revenue for governments. Using a difference‐in‐differences model, this analysis examines how the Amazon tax affected local sales tax collections in North Carolina and whether that impact has been greater for urban, rural, or tourism‐rich counties. The results suggest that the Amazon tax increased revenues and urban jurisdictions benefit most. This finding is important for practitioners and policymakers as they consider the impact of policy changes, such as the South Dakota v. Wayfair ruling, on revenue capacity and financial management.

This has been the summer of crippling ransomware attacks. More than 40 municipalities have been the victims of cyberattacks this year, from major cities such as Baltimore, Albany and Laredo, Tex., to smaller towns including Lake City, Fla.

It’s nothing short of a revolution, and the stakes have never been higher for retailers and consumer goods companies. Our Total Retail survey results, together with 2015 fourth-quarter retail results around the world, point to 2016 as a watershed for many of the trends that have been percolating over the past few years. From the unmistakable desire to be a member of a specialized retail community to buying more on their mobile phones, from becoming more reliant on social media to demanding a more service-focused and knowledgeable store employee, global consumers are pushing the boundaries of what shopping means.

Ever since Amazon began selling books online in 1995, retailers — and plenty of other commentators — have been asking what role, if any, physical stores might play in the retail arena. Some have gone so far as to predict the ultimate demise of stores, and others expound the virtues of various hybrid omnichannel solutions. This report explores where things stand in retail in 2017.

This article explores the different ways retailers might engage with their customers in the future as we shift into an evermore digital-physical hybrid world.

This report aims to pull back Amazon’s cloak of invisibility, it shows how the company’s tightening grip is stifling competition, eroding jobs, and threatening communities - it presents new data; draws on interviews with dozens of manufacturers, retailers, and others; and synthesizes a broad body of previous reporting and scholarship.

We are on the cusp of one of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruptions of transportation in history. By 2030, within 10 years of regulatory approval of autonomous vehicles (AVs), 95% of U.S. passenger miles traveled will be served by on-demand autonomous electric vehicles owned by fleets, not individuals, in a new business model we call “transportas-a-service” (TaaS). The TaaS disruption will have enormous implications across the transportation and oil industries, decimating entire portions of their value chains, causing oil demand and prices to plummet, and destroying trillions of dollars in investor value — but also creating trillions of dollars in new business opportunities, consumer surplus and GDP growth.

This briefing document concisely conveys the key findings of NCHRP Research Report 845: Advancing Automated and Connected Vehicles: Policy and Planning Strategies for State and Local Transportation Agencies. NCHRP Research Report 845 assesses policy and planning strategies at the state, regional, and local levels that could influence private-sector automated vehicle (AV) and connected vehicle (CV) choices to positively affect societal goals. The researchers identified and described mismatches between potential societal impacts and factors that influence private-sector decisions on CV and AV technologies. Policy and planning actions that might better align these interests were then identified. Researchers and the project oversight panel identified the promising actions and then conducted in-depth evaluations of the feasibility, applicability, and impacts of 18 strategies.

The development of self-driving, or autonomous, vehicles is accelerating. Here’s how they could affect consumers and companies.

As ride hailing and ride sharing grow more common, a new survey offers insights into shifting attitudes and behavior.

This report looks to the past to anticipate an uncertain future. It adopts the view of neither the techno-optimist nor the techno-pessimist about the scope and pace of change, instead taking a middle-of-the-road approach to evaluate the impacts of automation on the future of work in Oregon. Regardless of the scenario, Oregon policymakers — and their federal partners — should be preparing an expansive, flexible and focused policy response that can keep pace with rapidly changing conditions.

We are long past the point of discussing how technology has interrupted our lives and changed our perspective of the world. We are now in the post-disruption era, and in many sectors including retail, a new normal is emerging. We are seeing that the most successful retailers are using both online and offline approaches. The key is the critical balance between the efficiency of online with the engagement of offline.

A year after shutting all its U.S. stores, Toys R Us is making a comeback. The international chain, which filed for bankruptcy in 2017, is opening two mall stores this holiday season and bringing back its website. But don’t expect the Toys R Us you’re used to. 'We’re reinventing Toys R Us to make it fun and interactive for kids and parents.'