To help decision-makers understand the impact of AV technology on regional plans, modeling tools should anticipate automated vehicles’ effect on transportation networks and traveler choices.This research uses the Seattle region’s activity based travel model to test a range of travel behavior impacts from AV technology development. The existing model was not originally designed with automated vehicles in mind, so some modifications to the model assumptions are described in areas of roadway capacity, user values of time, and parking costs. Larger structural model changes are not yet considered.

Key findings

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Results of four scenario tests show that improvements in roadway capacity and in the quality of the driving trip may lead to large increases in vehicle-miles traveled.

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Per-mile usage charges may reduce the likelihood of AV adoption increasing VMT.

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Travel models will need to have major improvements in the coming years, especially with regard to shared-ride, taxi modes, and the effect of multitasking opportunities, to better anticipate the arrival of this technology.

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