University of Kentucky

Transportation network companies (TNCs), such as Uber and Lyft, have been hypothesized to both complement and compete with public transit. Existing research on the topic is limited by a lack of detailed data on the timing and location of TNC trips. This study overcomes that limitation by using data scraped from the Application Programming Interfaces of two TNCs, combined with Automated Passenger Count data on transit use and other supporting data. Using a panel data model of the change in bus ridership in San Francisco between 2010 and 2015, and confirming the result with a separate time-series model, we find that TNCs are responsible for a net ridership decline of about 10%, offsetting net gains from other factors such as service increases and population growth. We do not find a statistically significant effect on light rail ridership. Cities and transit agencies should recognize the transit-competitive nature of TNCs as they plan, regulate and operate their transportation systems.

Transportation network companies like Uber and Lyft came onto the market with the mission to reduce congestion in cities, however data from major cities around the U.S. shows that they may be having the opposite impact on congestion and public transportation.

This paper seeks to understand the potential causes of a decline in transit ridership by examining data from seven major U.S. cities – Boston, New York City, Washington D.C., Chicago, Denver, San Francisco and Los Angles.